Tag Archives: tightening

What Would ‘Tightening’ Look Like? from fivethirtyeight.com

It has been awhile since my last post and I have had very little time to attend to Truth in Politics NOW.  I don’t usually re-post an article from another site, but this is a wonderful site for poll watchers such as myself. They crunch and re-crunch the numbers every possible way. Visit them at www.fivethirtyeight.com.

Before you go, take a look at this article from five thirty eight, posted on October 27th, 2007. It made it very clear exactly what to watch for in terms of poll numbers between now and November 4th. I found it very helpful:

What Would ‘Tightening’ Look Like?

There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful ‘tightening’ look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it’s very hard to imagine McCain winning.

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